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Is it Any Wonder They Call it… Amazing Grace – a Ragamuffin Blog

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Are Hurricanes Getting Worse Due to Man-Made Climate Change?

Image result for hurricane devastation

“The catastrophic recent weather events in the United States, Asia and elsewhere have once again shown that the world is in the midst of a climate crisis of our own making. While countries like ours are on the front lines of the worst impacts to come, these events remind us that no country is immune.

Simply put, the commitments the world has made so far under the Paris Agreement to reduce the emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are woefully inadequate. And we are out of time. If we do not increase these commitments by 2020 as the agreement requires us to do, the potential impacts will be devastating, and they threaten the lives, homes and livelihoods of people in countries like ours.”

CNN Article linked below

It would be nice to think that when the world doesn’t end in 2020 that there would be an apology and retraction for this kind of rhetoric, but as it appears this kind of thing gets said every three months or so by THE authorities on the subject for the past 20 years with 0 consequence for not even being close I doubt any apology will be forthcoming.

If you are reading in the news today (again) that storms are getting incredibly worse and this level of ______ devasting natural disaster is unprecedented, take a breath and consider the following stats on hurricanes.

Guess what year in the past 166 years had the MOST major hurricanes… Go ahead… guess….

It was 68 years ago in 1950. Weird huh? There were 8 major hurricanes (over cat 3) 1950.

In the last decade the worst year for storms was 2017. In 2017 we experienced 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.

2017 was topped by 1933’s 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes.

Which was topped by 1961’s and 2005’s 7 major hurricanes.

Let’s look at some more facts

For the last 10 years we have averaged 14.70 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes per year.

Is this an incredible increase? Is man-made climate change causing significantly higher hurricanes that previous decades? Are we actually hurtling over a precipice from which there is no return as soon as 2020?

Well let’s look at the 10 years prior to that 1997 – 2006
During that decade every metric was higher. We had 15.2 named storms, 8.10 hurricanes, 3.7 major hurricanes per year.

How about we go back to 1947 -1956 – surely it was much better then! During that decade we averaged less named storms at 10.5, about the same hurricanes at 6.8, and MORE major hurricanes the either of the last 2 decades at 3.9 per year.

If you go back before 1947 no decade is higher than the present according to the link below BUT did we name storms with the same rules as today?

Here is an interesting article showing we did not (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/…/hurricane-names—how-are-th…/)
Also I wonder did we have the same ability to accurately identify hurricanes and their size in 1850 as we do today – I suspect the answer is no. But as you look through the link below you will see peak decades followed by lower decades for no discernable reason especially if you try to relate it to supposed man-made factors contributing to climate change.

http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm

Weather is complex. There are natural cycles in the earth that vary for reasons we clearly do not yet understand. I say clearly because NO ONE has come up with anything resembling an accurate, repeatable scientific model to project future temperatures or natural disasters.

So can we drop the rabble-rousing hysteria? Yes let’s study our planet. Yes – let’s care for it to the best of our ability, but can we stop with saying we know with near absolute certainty something we very very clearly do not.

Of course I know the answer is no we cannot restrain ourselves. And I am a heretic for daring to question the established doctrine of the intellectuals which is willingly propped up by media and politicians. But maybe one person reading this might be convinced to evaluate the evidence a little closer and with some scientific skepticism and if so that will be worth it!

https://www.cnn.com/…/climate-change-marshall-is…/index.html

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Temporary Tax Cuts? Horrible for the Middle Class?

Have you heard that the tax bill is “permanent” for corporations and “goes way up after 10 years” for the middle class and there is “no tax relief for the middle class” in the bill? I just read articles this morning from the New York Times, Washington Post and US Today stating these exact things. I want to show you why this is dishonest journalism.

1) There is a rule in the legislature that limits the amount a bill can increase the deficit both by time and dollars. The congressional budget office forecasts what a bill is projected to add to the deficit – in the case of the tax bill it is projected that it will add 1.5 trillion to the deficit. (by the way I don’t think economists can project the resultant economy from a significantly reduced corporate and personal rate accurately over the next 10 years as it has never been done before – so I give little credence to the 1.5 trillion added in deficit spending estimate) This deficit amount is more than would be allowed under current rules IF if extended more than 10 years. The Republicans are not trying to screw the little guy in order to help corporations – they literally cannot make the middle-class tax cuts permanent under current rules. So they are implementing them for as long as they can which will establish a new baseline and allow them to be made permanent in the future – just as the Bush tax cuts were made permanent under Obama. When news agencies report this 10-year expiration window without showing the reason and the more than likely ultimate extension of these cuts and are telling half-truths and failing to serve the public honestly. And believe me they know what I have written above – so it is intentional duplicity. That’s frustrating to me.

2) You have heard almost certainly from almost every news source that you rate goes way up in the middle class after 10 years. From the above paragraph, you can see the half-truth they are telling to say that – but then they say there is no relief for the middle class in the bill – it all goes to the rich and corporations. Do you see the lie here? In 10 years (if there are no extensions to the tax relief) your taxes will revert to as they are now – which they are saying will be a huge increase to your taxes. It can only be a huge increase to your taxes if the bill is in fact significantly reducing your taxes over the next 10 years because at the end of ten years it would just go back to as it is. Again this is a very frustrating deliberate manipulation by the press.

My rule – read source documents or as close to source documents as possible rather than opinion pieces that mascarade as unbiased news reporting

Conservatism in a Donald Trump Era

3 Issues in the new Trump era.
1)  Rule via executive order.  Republicans and conservatives rightly were incensed over the way president Obama thumbed his nose at the opposition and bypassed congress by executive orders.  Trump is doubling down on Obama’s precedent and the right is largely silent about it or excuse it.  We do not have a king.  We believe in limited government with checks and balances.  The law making body of the US is the congress not the president.  Whether I am in agreement with the substance of Trump’s changes does not matter – making the change in a way that honors the well designed checks and balances of our founders does.
2)  When Obama nominated his cabinet the sneaky democrats found a way to cheat past the 60% requirement to break a filibuster by changing the 60% requirement rule with a 50% vote.  Republicans were rightly incensed.  But now that power has shifted into their hands they are taking advantage of the same rule they had said was wrong.  I agree with their original assessment and believe that they should change the rule back with a provision that it cannot be changed without a 60% vote.  I realize this is unfair because the democrats benefited from the rule change and we would likely have some of Trump’s nominees rejected, but I believe it would be the right thing to do.
3)  For the last 8 years Republians have hit Obama over the head with his exponential driving up of the debt.  He took it from 10 trillion to 20 trillion during his time in office.  It is deplorable and the republicans were right to denounce it.  But now, with a Republican majority in the house and senate and the white house, the first order of business for the Republicans was to pass a budget which BY THEIR OWN ESTIMATES drives up the debt another 10 trillion to 30 trillion in the next ten years.
Where is the conservative party?  I like some of Trump’s direction.  I like the Department of Education nominee.  I like the SCOTUS nominee, but at what cost?  If we drive over the top of our opponents because we presently wield the power it will come back doubly when the power shifts hands again.  Let’s return to a conservative, limited form of government as envisioned by the founders, rather than continuing down the well trodden road of power hungry politics.

Cuba, Castro, Kaepernick and Cabdrivers

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I asked my Cuban-born cab driver how he felt about Castro dying
He said, “I don’t care that he died.”
I asked him if he thought things would be different in Cuba
He said, “No way – the people ruling are too hungry for power.”
I asked him about Colin Kaepernick.
He said, “Who?”
I told him the NFL quarterback who supports Castro.

He still didn’t know about him so I told him about Kaepernick and he had this perfect response.
“The great thing about America is that you can think whatever you want and it is ok.  I couldn’t do that in Cuba.  But I think this quarterback is a great fool and doesn’t know what he is talking about.”
Made my day!

#Never Trump is not immoral

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I do not think a person needs to be perfect to be president of the United States. I certainly am not. But neither do I believe they are qualified if they shamelessly and repeatedly make their sin their glory and boast. It is for this reason, I cannot Continue reading “#Never Trump is not immoral”

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