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Is it Any Wonder They Call it… Amazing Grace – a Ragamuffin Blog

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Shelter In Place

Are We Safe Yet Washington State? Evaluating Covid 19 from a May 2020 Perspective

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In the last seven days initial estimates on Covid-19 related deaths in Washington State: 10

Two days had 0 deaths

LINK

The week before: 36 deaths

Estimated deaths from all causes for that same 2 week period in Washington State: 2282 deaths

 LINK (I took 2015 death rate and increased at the same ratio to account for the 2020 population increase)

This means that 2238 of the 2282 people who died in Washington State over the past 2 weeks (or 98.1%) died of something other than Covid-19 even with our “generous” counting methods.

A total of 749 people in Washington state died from Covid-19 through 4/26. 7 of those deaths were people under the age of 40 and 0 deaths under the age of 19 and less than 10% are under the age of 60.

396 of the deaths are among those age 80 or older. One of the worst aspects of our society is the devaluing of the elderly so I do not take these deaths lightly. But there are 247,928 people in Washington age 80 or older giving a mortality rate in the worst demographic of .16%. The overall mortality rate in the state is .01%

LINK LINK

Based on this data should all age groups have the same precautions placed upon them?

Here are the counties that are currently shut down – small business forced to close, churches not meeting, only essential travel, no hair dressers or barbers, no new construction – these counties haven’t had a SINGLE Covid-19 death in the entire month of April as of 4/26.

Asotin County, Chelan County, Douglas County, Grant County, Island County, Kitsap County, Adams County, Clallam County, Cowlitz County, Grays Harbor County, Jefferson County, San Juan County, Stevens County, Thurston County, Walla Walla County, Whitman County, Ferry County.

And here are additional counties that haven’t had a death in the past 2 weeks

Franklin County, Klickitat County, Lewis County, Spokane County, Whatcom County.

Friends – that is most of the state. May I ask a question?

Based on this data should we be putting the exact same restrictions on every area – rural and urban?

Is it really necessary for business owners to be losing their life’s work, for our constitutional and God-granted freedoms be forfeited, for our government to tether us to a massive debt?

Or could we open – now – in many areas? Could our most vulnerable be trusted to decide for themselves the risks they are willing to take? And could we allow the rest of us to return for the most part to business as usual?

Based on the data above the answer is “Yes!”

#UseYourVoice #ShareThis

Is it Time to Dial Back our Reactions to Covid-19?

For the fourth time in 2 weeks the “top projection study” has significantly revised their death projections downward. This is not due to the “shelter-in-place” order as that was factored into all of the projections they produced. LINK

Some observations:

1) Covid-19 appears to be more aggressive than the seasonal flu and requires caution especially among higher risk individuals. Though at least at this point the last season’s flu killed more than double the number of people Covid-19 has. LINK

2) In highly populous areas like New York the virus spreads faster and has the potential to overrun medical facilities. But in recent days the fears that there would be a massive shortage of beds even in NYC have been to shown to be wildly ill-founded. LINK

3) The over-all rate of death in the US is unlikely to be meaningfully changed versus the average year. In fact due to us not being out and about the death rate in the United States has significantly fallen believe it our not. Meaning far less people are dying than is normal. (see chart below based on NCHS Data)

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Questions I feel we should all be asking.

1) Why is this a one size fits all approach? For example in my home state of Washington – Ferry County – has 0 active cases of Covid-19 (they have 1 recovered patient). Why should traveling, golfing, restaurants, small businesses, and schools be shut down? In my county, Grant, we have 140 cases and 2 deaths.

No photo description available.

This is not hospital overrun or mass death. Why are we committing mass economic suicide? Did you know that there is only 1 county that has over 100 deaths in this state? King County – where as of today, 4/18/2020, 330 people have died with 4,865 tested infections. The population of King County is 2.25 million. 720 people died in King County from unintentional injury for the most recent year with data – more than double Covid-19 in our hardest hit region. LINK

I ask again – Why the panic? Why the suicide pill?

2) Of course the answer is “because we want to flatten the curve – we want to not overwhelm hospitals – and we want to reduce the death count.” Okay questions…

Hasn’t the curve been flattened and hasn’t the death rate been significantly below the projected models with mass enforced social distancing protocols? Answer is emphatically – Yes!

Have hospitals been overwhelmed throughout the country dealing with Covid-19 cases? No (NYC has been hit hard but even there the 2500 bed rapidly built hospital is only using 330 beds and the “experts” are saying they are over the hump) In many cases throughout the country medical staff are being laid off because there are not enough patients to pay their salaries.

One example – LINK

Please please note – this is not AT ALL to say medical staff are not nobly and heroically demonstrating supreme dedication and care to those with Covid-19. They ARE and I am grateful for what they show me about the people that make up our country.

And while fending off those who think of this as a zero-sum game – meaning either I join in on the panic or I hate old people – let me also say any death is tragic and I am grieved with all of you who have been affected personally by this virus. And I am grateful to serve a King who has conquered over death and to know there is coming a day for all who hope in Him where death will be finally trampled under foot.

Back to the article.

“We want to reduce death count.” Is what we are doing going to reduce the death count? How is immunity to a virus developed in a group? One way is via vaccine – this is apparently the only way from guys like Bill Gates (why is he involved?) and Dr. Fauci (a lifelong big pharma guy).

Here are some incontrovertible facts. 1) We do not have a vaccine. 2) The most optimistic reports state that it would be a least a year to develop and mass produce a vaccine. 3) We CANNOT survive as a country without business until a vaccine is developed. The obvious (to me at least) conclusion from these facts is that we must reopen the country BEFORE we have a vaccine. And when we do more people will get sick thus creating a “second wave.” Since the facts point to this conclusion why are we committing economic suicide before submitting to the inevitable? What will be different next week or month about the coronavirus? Will we have a cure then? Will Corona wink out of existence then? No! And if “no” what are we doing to ourselves?

Which leads me to my second point – vaccine is not the only way (or most common way) of developing immunity. The most common way is via people getting sick, developing immunity and thus protecting the most vulnerable. The good news with Covid-19 is that children seem to be thankfully, very little impacted and could help protect their grandparents from this virus. More good news 98% or more of people recover from this virus – MANY a-symptomatically. Forbes has a long article on this (and other points) which I will link here. LINK

But here is a salient point.

“Standard epidemic models, such as the Kermack-McKendrick model from 1927, emphasize that in the absence of vaccines and treatments, epidemics only conclude when herd immunity is achieved in the population. Herd immunity refers to the proportion of the population that is immune to the source of infection. When the proportion of the population which becomes infected and then immune is sufficiently high, the total number of infections stabilizes, instead of growing.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who advises the President on COVID-19, a vaccine for COVID-19 will not be available for at least 10 months. Therefore, the country is going to have to rely on herd immunity if it is to end the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. this year.”

Additional Questions:

– Why are we insisting on counting anything as a Covid-19 death even if that was not the root problem? And even if Covid-19 wasn’t tested for? There are many anecdotal stories of this out there plus the CDC has put the policy into writing.

“COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.” LINK

And here is a doctor talking about it

Are we trying to peddle fear? If we published a Johns Hopkins style blip map of every way Americans or world citizens have died on a daily basis – would it inspire fear? And if we posted on every page of social media and the news the running total of deaths how would it not be rightly said that you are trying to peddle fear to gain power over people and to control their actions?

And that leads me to a final question for all of us.

How is it possible that we have so quickly surrendered the liberty and freedom that have long defined us as a nation?

We are not allowed to go to church even with social distancing. We cannot drive where we please (how driving is not social distancing I have no idea). Our small business have been forced to shut down. We are not allowed to go to work. Gun stores are shut down while abortion mills and marijuana stores are deemed essential.

Since when do we trust the government to be our parent? Are we the people really considered so dumb that we cannot think for ourselves? Do we not all -every day – make evaluations about risks and activities and then choose whether or not to participate in them? There is risk inherent in driving a car (the numbers suggest far more risk than corona) yet we have insisted on our freedom to drive. What we choose to eat and drink we are free to choose yet both again lead to far more death than Corona. If we were given rations and our freedom to eat and drink as we choose were encroached upon we would NOT tolerate it. So why rush to give up our blood bought liberties because of corona?

“We the people” is the opening line to our constitution. I am not advocating a war with weapons – I am saying we have the amazing freedom in America to exercise our freedom to speak. We have the freedom to learn and evaluate on our own. We have the ability to not just receive what is fed us. We have to right to say, “No! We do not want a 6 trillion dollar bribe for our silence.”

We want our business owners to have the freedom to unlock their doors. We want the freedom to worship as we see fit. We want the freedom to travel. We want the freedom to evaluate for ourselves the risks and precautions we will take – not have them thrust upon us in a one size fits all approach.

Life has inherent risks. The freedom to accept those risks and live life is part of what it means to be human. This is not a “throw caution to the wind” article – it is article pushing back on the idea that we must panic, we must hunker down and we must destroy our lives. And I hope to encourage you to use your voice to speak to your neighbors, friends and government leaders.

So Governor Jay Inslee – this is one voice asking that our freedom be restored.

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